Taming the Bullwhip on the Silk Road

How was it possible in the year 210 A.D. to maintain a continuous flow of merchandise on the Silk Road and to match supply with demand as conditions changed from one year to the next? How could people without telephones or any form of communication faster than the pace of a camel caravan figure out how to operate this vast supply chain without continuously running out of products in one city and building up too much somewhere else? [This article picks up where the first article “Ancient Silk Road – First Global Supply Chain” left off]

Based on simulations of Silk Road operations, and a bit of historical research, an interesting answer emerges. This answer cannot be absolutely verified, yet it fits the available facts and provides a simple and coherent explanation. Let’s start with the simulation results. In the initial simulation the supply chain runs for eight weeks and then silk inventory runs out in Palmyra (4), as shown in the screenshot below.

Take2- looking west(click on image for bigger picture) Continue reading